{
  "project": "NBA Rookie Value",
  "snapshotDate": "2026-10-05",
  "units": "Season-total ESPN fantasy points, adjusted to the 2024–25 top-150 reference scale",
  "referenceScale": 2290.4333333333334,
  "features": [
    "ln(NBA overall draft position)",
    "Final pre-draft college assists per 40 minutes"
  ],
  "trainingClasses": [
    2010,
    2024
  ],
  "testClass": 2025,
  "metrics": {
    "trainingPicks": 894,
    "trainingTargets": 819,
    "missingTargets": 75,
    "testPlayers": 59,
    "pricedRookies": 138,
    "pricedClasses": 10,
    "plannedTraitTests": 96,
    "observedCollegeAssists": 47,
    "missingCollegeAssists": 12,
    "frozen": {
      "mae": 404.2115744069241,
      "spearman": 0.5826976534526062
    },
    "frozenBaseline": {
      "mae": 447.40041227738726,
      "spearman": 0.550460330296754
    },
    "combined": {
      "mae": 430.60909879190467,
      "spearman": 0.5677626832507563
    },
    "pickOnly": {
      "mae": 442.46752898382977,
      "spearman": 0.550460330296754
    },
    "delta": {
      "mae": -11.858430191925095,
      "maeLow": -26.281726588802442,
      "maeHigh": 2.4068689881546526
    }
  },
  "limitations": [
    "The original frozen model was not conclusively superior to its draft-position baseline.",
    "Historical ESPN ADP coverage is selective: 138 priced rookies across 10 classes, not all 953 picks.",
    "No draft-day trait survived the 96-comparison correction.",
    "The two-predictor follow-up is posthoc because its features were selected after seeing 2025 outcomes.",
    "Missing college assists use a training-only median; source values remain missing.",
    "ESPN points/categories pooling and draft-limit values around 140 are not verified.",
    "FantasyPros provider-order fields were excluded from literal average-pick pricing inference.",
    "An early recruiting parser accessed and discarded ancillary held-out outcome cells. The incident is preserved as a QA failure; those cells were not exported or used by the model."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "NBA Stats: official 2025 draft identities",
      "url": "https://stats.nba.com/stats/drafthistory?LeagueID=00&College=&OverallPick=&RoundNum=&RoundPick=&Season=2025&TeamID=&TopX="
    },
    {
      "title": "2025 ESPN ADP: archived Hashtag table, updated October 7",
      "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20251009173943id_/https://hashtagbasketball.com/fantasy-basketball-adp"
    },
    {
      "title": "2017 ESPN AVG PICK: original archived draft table",
      "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20171016112921id_/http://games.espn.com:80/fba/livedraftresults"
    },
    {
      "title": "ESPN: old and new default points-scoring formulas",
      "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20210504001028id_/https://www.espn.com/fantasy/basketball/story/_/id/30296896/espn-fantasy-new-default-points-league-scoring-explained"
    }
  ]
}